Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Election 09 Results analysis by a group of GMPians.

Yogesh : Disappointing results for BJP in M.P., U.P., Rajasthan, Maharashtra. But its good that RJD, Left have not got enough seats to decide the future of government. How come public is still ready to elect Congress even after so many terrorist attacks?
Only good thing is there will not be a hung parliament.
Dr Milind : I am of the same opinion as yours, Yogesh. This result is not the one we expected but public is at fault-only 45-50% voter turnout. Shamelessly they availed the holiday to have a long weekend vacation.
Of course fortune is still with us and so a single party with majority has avoided a big chunk of horse trading thereafter. Congress may not be the right choice for the country at the moment but positively the markets are going to rise or further collapse is avoided. Imagine a unstable situation would have done such a lot of harm to economy.
 Hope for the best. Terrorism may get curbed automatically owing to the present aggression of pakistan on the talibans.
Soumya : I think this election result is a very good one.
1. There will be no horse trade. I mean very less.
2. Congress doesn't have to do anything with terrorist attack. I think it's intelligence failure and security lapse
3.Among all parties congress has more young leaders and more knowledgeable candidates. Wouldn't like to see communal violence again. BJP made a serious mistake by inducting Modi as alternate PM. Chandan Mitra admitted this.
I would love to see Rahul Gandhi as PM soon. I have to get my voter id card done soon so that I can cast my vote next time for the first time. See the reaction of market on monday. I think some one like Manmohan singh would be ideal choice for current economic situation.I am sure foreign countries will welcome this.
I dont support congress in my state because they didn't do anything but support congress govt at center.Atleast  a nationalist party came to power not some one line Mayawati..Uff nightmare...
Ranjay : Although i am supporter of BJP, but i am happy wid result outcome
 1) This time Junta voted for development, look at Bihar, AP, Delhi, Chhatisgarh development speaking its own language and its being paid off to ruling party
2) This time more than 75 % seats are with national party, so ppl kept national intrest up over regional interest.
3) Left is no where in picture - This thing will definitely give a good boost to economy and market. I think they got gud treatment fr there opportunistic behaviour. 
4) Changes in UP, WB and Kerla were unprecedented, but its gud. God knws who like to rule by ppl like Mayawati and Mulayam.
Parth : AWESOME RESULTS !!
I am apolitical most of the time and hardly take sides Cong/BJP, but stability wise, i guess this is the best result, either BJP sweep or Cong sweep was the need of the hour as during recessionary times, a political stability was very much needed for india's growth engine to continue.
Also not let third/fourth front dominate the horse trade was also the need of the hour.
Markets will react extremely positively on this and the kind of euphoria in the stocks will continue for some time.
All the projections of india/china kick starting the growth demand during the recessionary period, will it seem, are on track, as india had a question mark of supplementing growth with political stability, but it seems we have a good one year ahead of us.
Kailash : Good results for us as the most important thing required for economic recovery is political stability.Either a congress or a BJP sweep was best for us  and we have got one.It is best that the Left and Mayawati are left behind.I hope even Mulayam is also kept out of the government.
Let us hope it augurs well for us as far as the economy goes. With a great representation from the youth, we expect to have better governance. About the BJP, it will have to rehink some of its agendas if it needs to hit back and prove a good opposition and more importantly seek a second generation of leaders.
Anshuman : Historic results!! Good omen for crucial year ahead!!
Dr Pallav: If one analyses the micro aspects of this election,there's even more to cheer about--people from the most backward areas of U.P & Bihar were seen saying that their vote goes to the party who develops industry & infrastructure in their region.If this section of population is rising above caste politics & voting for development & prosperity,it's a good sign of things to come.
It is also heartening to see that people have rewarded a sincere person like Rahul Gandhi,who did make an honest attempt at knowing the people at the grassroot level.probably,an indicator that honest politics has a place in the long term.
Thirdly, performers have been rewarded, be it Nitish Kumar,Naveen Patnaik, Shivraj Singh Chauhan,Sheila Dixit or Manmohan Singh. According to stats available all 106 districts where NREGA was implemented have voted congress candidates to the parliament. This would, hopefully be a signal to the other CMs to perform if they want to retain power in their respective elections.
(on a lighter note) What is ridiculous is,however,that this government is coming up with certain drastic reforms:
1) No jokes allowed on surds.
2) The clock will never strike 12-- after 11 there'll be 1.
3) Changing the national anthem to "singh is king".
Kuntal : So at last Manmohan is taking decision on his own :) :) :)
Punit : I think that these elections have delivered a very positive result i.e. emergence of National Level Parties in the Parliament. Further it has also wiped off one big myth that poor people in Bihar and UP do not intelligent enough to cast their votes effectively. Inspite of very low electorate voting (as low as 30% in some areas) opportunist spoiler politicians viz. Mayawati, Ram Vilas Paswan, etc have been shown the door.
Lets all wish that with a safe numbers in the Paliament UPA will go full blast to energise our economy and our standing in the World.
Pranit : Barring the politicians and parties, I see it as a mandate for Economic Reforms. With communists shrinking to a dismal number, there is a lot in cards for new government. 
Some of the major areas where we can see the changes, 
1) Disinvestment in the large govt-owned oil-companies, 2) Banking Sector opening up for Foreign Banks 3) More Foreign Colleges setting up new campus in Education-sector and 4) More activities in telecom with 3Gs and other reforms planned. 
The clear mandate is an opportunity for Manmohan Singh to realize all the dreams that he had shown to Corporate India as the first reformist Finance Minister. 
It should be now or never for him. 
Apart from that it will be nice to see other experts getting inducted in cabinet. Shashi Tharoor, Montek Singh, Chidambram are few of the names that can be at the helm of the things in new formation.
So things should be falling in place and hope to see a stronger Indian Economy next year the time when we leave XL-campus. 
Durgesh : My take on election results 
Its a vote for stability. 
None of the exit polls / surveys expected such a clear majority for UPA. In my opinion, Congress has really worked hard in these elections (not necessarily during their term) and it is reflecting in the number of seats. They went alone in Bihar and UP. Bihar was a gamble and it paid off. congress couldn't win seats but going alone was destructive enough for Lalu/Paswan and Nithish had a clean sweep. UP was a totally different story. I  think it was a combination of some great campaigning done by the Gandhi family and few blunders by SP. Going with Kalyan Singh, The whole Aazam khan episode were few reasons why they lost their traditional vote-bank (muslims) to congress. Going alone in these states wasn't an emotional aggression just because the allies (Lalu/paswan in Binar and Mulayam in UP) were offering an embarrassing  number of seats to congress. Look what happened in West Bengal. Mamta didn't give lot of seats to Congress, but Congress took it. I think they knew that Mamta is going to have a blast in WB. Coming to Trinmul Congress, I'm not very happy for their win. People in WB were not happy with Left and its age old policies and they jumped on the next available option. But after what Trinmul has done in Singur and Nandigram, I think the fate of state will be "aasman se gira, khajoor mien atka" 
Coming to BJP.  Utterly confused in this election, they had no idea where/why they are going. Varun Gandhi strategy (if at all it was a strategy) was a big setback. Although Varun won, but Pilibhit was a BJP stronghold anyway. They didn't had to resort to such means. All it did was to take away some votes from urban middle/upper class votes in other parts of the country, specially Metros. And Above all What can i say for Mr L K Advani. The poor guy is still confused. What is the meaning of "sanyas" at this stage. Sir, if you think you are too old for "Leader of opposition", what were you thinking while projecting yourself as "PM in waiting". As BJP had no real issues this time, they came up with the "good old" Hindutva and few personal attacks on Manmoham and Congress. 
Having said that, I'm a BJP supporter and I think they need to go back, do a lot of introspection, create a solid second line of leaders and Please stop chanting "ram ka naam" 
Soumya : First time in my sense I heard market trading halted because it touched the upper circuit. Trading was halted in past because of heavy selling but halted because of heavy buying, I saw for the first time. Good reason to cheer
Kailash: I think one of the major reasons why the congress did well was its ability to enthuse the young voters to vote for it.Rahul Gandhi was projected as a honest leader and a youth Icon not too intrested in a cabinet berth.Whether it is true or it is a strategy; either way it worked for them.Also the fact that for the first time Congress was projected as the victim( of personal attacks, of Left policies, of being cornered by the fourth front, NCP in Maharashtra). THis also led to the Congress for the frst time sweeping the urban middle class; the supposed bastion of the BJP.
I wish they are able to further build upon on this positive mandate and carry out good reforms in the economic as well as other fronts. Their ability to do so will determine the future of Indian politics and India as a whole.
As for in Maharashtra it was not a win for the Congress but a divison in the so called Marathi votes, a large chunk of them  went to the MNS leading to the loss of the BJP-SS. It has to be seen how the political equations change for the Assembly elections of Maharashtra which are round the corner in September 2009.Talks of NCP-SS combine as well as BJP MNS combine are already doing the rounds.
About the market reaction , it has been wonderful. Trading has been stopped at the upper circuit due to great hopes of reforms in the industry as well as the PSUs. Good news for us.
Sunil: Congress won, because of bad marketing  by BJP ( to use management parlance- its Brand communication and USP were not well engraved in the mind of consumer)
BJP could not shed its communal clothes courtesy Varun Gandhi, it could not project its governance agenda ( do u know it a vibrant well considered ideology) as all ads portrayed Advani as saviour- they did not communicate their strategy- the robust intellectual team he has.
they did not communicate the mis governance( shivraj patil & paswan ) and
most importantly loss of opportunity with a UPA government ( we could have solved Kashmir issue now- Pakistan is on its knees )
thankfully with left parties out of ruling coalition- actual governance agenda of Congress will be visible for us.
how much intellectually stimulating and long term it is , lets us see-- but manmohan, chidambaram and montek singh should show there colours now.
A stable government without CPI/SP would be a big plus.........focus on governance now.
congress as such is pro rural (employment guarantee/ loan waiver schemes) and less urban focussed.
but a mandate is a mandatee :)
we deserve the government we vote for :D
and fortunately for us the economic recovery in India would be faster now
Punit : With the elections behind us and market witnessing two circuit breakers inspite of negative cues from the global market I think people of India have now started seeing light at the end of the tunnel.
With this mandate I sincerely hope that leaders of UPA would take economic reforms to the next platform and make our tiger more powerful than the dragon.
Since I was in UP at the time of elections it was great witnessing people casting their vote cutting across religious and caste considerations. UP also saw decimation of muscle politicians. It would have been great if Varun Gandhi had lost this elections as it was very unpalatable for a young and educated youth of the country to make such utterances which could have fueled relgious sentiments and destabilized the country.
One more push is required to get this country rid of corrupt politicians and then we can expect India to be the Golden Bird once again.
And Final Comment from Yogesh : sensex is already up; 14 K+ crossed. good sign for us :)

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